Our 2024 F1 Season Predictions
Image: Red Bull Content Pool
We’re back! After what feels like the longest winter break, we now find ourselves in 2024 and, with that, high hopes for a thrilling season of Formula One! With the grid remaining the same as last year, we’re sure to see the continuation of on-track rivalries, some hairy moments between teammates and much more action from some of the best drivers on the planet.
We’ll be going flat-out to provide you the very best Formula One content this year, with editorials, podcasts and more all to come - so watch this space!
So, we thought we’d collate all our crystal ball predictions here for your reading convenience - we’ll give some rationale for each one.
Drivers’ Championship Standings
Arguably the most paramount goal for every member of the grid, the Drivers’ Title is what everyone’s fighting for. Last year we saw Max Verstappen claim his third consecutive championship in dominant fashion - will we see the same again, with that 86.3% win rate being bested? Or will there be a bit more of an involved battle for glory? All we know is that we’re in for the ride - here’s what we reckon the championship will shape up to be this season:
Miles
Champion - Max Verstappen
I think it’s rather obvious why I’ve elected Red Bull’s poster boy to be the winner of this year’s championship. We all saw how easy he made it look in 2023 despite, granted, a few wobbles such as brake issues in the dying laps of the US Grand Prix at COTA and pretty much the entire Singapore Grand Prix weekend. I predict Red Bull and Adrian Newey will nail it yet again with the RB20, giving Max the right tools to fire on all cylinders. Pun most definitely intended.
P2 - Lewis Hamilton
Image; Mercedes-AMG F1 Media
The UK’s most successful F1 driver of all time will have a slightly more positive season than last year, potentially snatching a win or two off his championship rival Verstappen. Being in the middle of the current 2022 set of regulations, teams are beginning to understand what makes a fast car and what doesn’t - a fact thoroughly personified in Mercedes’ W13 and its notoriously failing ‘zero sidepod’ concept. I can see the team building on last year’s car, turning it into the second or third fastest car on pace semi-consistently, which will give Lewis the agency to take second place in the title fight.
P3 - Sergio Pérez
After giving Red Bull its first-ever 1-2 finish in the Drivers’ Championship, Sergio ‘Checo’ Pérez has proven that he is a strong second-in-command consistent points scorer and, on his day, absolutely rapid race winner. He had an admittedly rocky 2023 season, with the Japanese Grand Prix and his home race at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez standing out as the low points. This coming season will see a few more hiccups from the Mexican but he will retain his foothold as second driver.
P4 - Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin had a stonking start to last year’s campaign, showing up Mercedes at Bahrain and almost claiming pole position at the illustrious Monaco Grand Prix. Here’s the thing, though: only one of the team’s drivers was responsible for these relative successes - Fernando Alonso. The 42-year-old still has that fighting spirit and ability to drag his car into places it shouldn’t be and 2024 will prove that point even further.
P5 - Lando Norris
Image: McLaren F1
Building on the foundations of the surprisingly competitive MCL60, McLaren will push further on in the development race, not quite catching up to Red Bull’s pace and performance, but nonetheless providing their lead driver Lando Norris with a potentially race-winning car. Lando, equipped with his MCL61 (and a goatee) will be the team’s leading point scorer, standing on the podium on a handful of occasions.
P6 - George Russell
Being Mercedes’ latest race winner, George Russell is certainly making his case for being the future of the team’s F1 presence as Lewis approaches that decisive age of forty. He’s proven that he’s capable of winning a Grand Prix in sub-par machinery and will push whatever the W15 can offer to its limits.
P7 - Oscar Piastri
After an impressive rookie season last year, this young Aussie under the wing of manager and multiple F1 race winner Mark Webber will surely be aiming high and pushing for more than just a sprint race victory. It’s up to him how he fares against his much more experienced teammate, though rumours of an upcoming inter-team rivalry remain quiet for now.
P8 - Carlos Sainz
Carlos Sainz Jr. is the latest in a long line of Ferrari race winners and was the only non-Red Bull driver to steal a victory from Max Verstappen in 2023. Although the fan favourite may be his teammate Charles, I’ll say the Spaniard outperforms the Monegasque this coming season. Yet again, it’s all a question of whether Formula One’s most heritage-rich team can provide their drivers with a capable (and most importantly reliable) car this year and maybe make up some ground in the chase for Red Bull-esque performance.
P9 - Charles Leclerc
I’ll take a punt on this one and say that Charles Leclerc’s (if only temporary) title challenge at the dawn of the 2022 season will be his last for a while - and by that I mean potentially post-2025, when all new regulations will be introduced. Recent history has shown us that Ferrari can most certainly blunder a chance at a win and, on the odd occasion, a championship. That being said, the Prancing Horse could rear its head again and fight for championship glory in 2024; after all, stranger things have happened. Prove me wrong Ferrari!
P10 - Yuki Tsunoda
Since making his debut for Alpha Tauri in 2021, Yuki Tsunoda has proven himself a fierce competitor that can make the most of the machinery he’s given. Think back to that race in 2021 - the global media attention that Grand Prix and all its controversies received overshadowed the fact that Yuki scored his (as of yet) career-best finish of P4. That’s one away from a podium: in an Alpha Tauri! Don’t forget also that he scored two points with a P9 in his maiden race at Bahrain - becoming the first Japanese driver in history to score points on debut. I see the young and yet experienced driver making a bit more of a name for himself on the grid this year.
Manav
Champion - Max Verstappen
Max Verstappen’s form was impeccable in 2023 and I expect nothing less from the Dutchman for 2024. With Adrian Newey signing a “longer term” contract extension with Red Bull, Verstappen can be sure to pilot an equally rapid RB20, with his sights firmly set on a fourth consecutive championship. I think Max will win a majority of races this season but will face serious competition from the likes of Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc.
P2 - Lando Norris
Speaking of Lando, the 24-year-old demonstrated his ability to lead a struggling team to reasonable success, achieving a record number of podiums last year whilst fighting seasoned drivers including Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton for championship positions. I believe 2024 will finally be the year McLaren fans have been waiting for after a decade of disappointment. I predict Lando will win a few races for McLaren but will inevitably yield to the well-oiled machine that is Red Bull and Verstappen.
P3 - Charles Leclerc
After a disappointing 2023, Charles Leclerc will most likely make a heroic comeback to occasionally challenge for the championship, with a few wins coming the Monegasque’s way. Leclerc will finally get the hang of converting poles to victories and will make the Tifosi proud.
P4 - Fernando Alonso
Fernando Alonso is one of the greatest drivers in recent memory. His ability to outperform drivers that are almost half his age is awe-inspiring. His second season with the Aston Martin team will be somewhat similar to his first, claiming a handful of podiums but still falling short in terms of overall race pace. I hope, as do many, that Fernando claims at least one win this season as it seems he might be leaving the sport in the next season or two. Either way, it’s an absolute privilege to see him race.
P5 - Lewis Hamilton
Lewis Hamilton’s 2023 campaign was extremely annoying. After a second consecutive winless season, the Brit will hope to bring at least one win to Mercedes as he looks to work his way back to former glory. I think Mercedes will decline in pace in 2024 but the power of Hamilton’s determination will outweigh the various issues that plague Mercedes.
P6 - Sergio Perez
I predict this will be Sergio Perez’s final season with Red Bull. It’s not because he’s older than most Red Bull drivers, I think he’ll voluntarily bow out of the sport in 2024 to make way for another driver, who Red Bull hopes will present a greater threat to Max Verstappen. I think Checo will get a few podiums here and there but no wins for the Mexican.
P7 - Oscar Piastri
After arguably the best rookie season since Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri will want to best teammate Norris, taking a sprint race win in 2023. I believe that the 22-year-old will score a great amount of points but will fail to win, unlike his teammate who will challenge Verstappen for the championship.
P8 - George Russell
Image: Mercedes-AMG F1 Media
George Russell’s 2023 season was one to forget as he failed to build on the success of his debut season at Mercedes when he beat Lewis Hamilton in the drivers’ championship. Russell will ultimately continue his current form and not score any victories but might claim a podium or two.
P9 - Carlos Sainz
I think Carlos Sainz’s 2024 season will be his worst yet with Ferrari. I predict but don’t hope he will have terrible luck, much like Russell in 2023. I think his pace will be solid enough to help Ferrari score well in the constructors’ championship but will not be challenging for wins anytime soon.
P10 - Alexander Albon
I am a firm believer in James Vowles’ immense impact on Williams. And it’s evident in Alexander Albon’s cracking pace in 2023. The Thai driver has cemented himself as a team leader, frequently scoring points in a car many thought to be slow. I think Albon will claim a surprise podium at a race like Austria or Miami and will slightly raise Williams to a solid sixth in the constructors’ championship.
Constructors’ Championship Standings
Now for the often forgotten second title that our ten teams will be duking it out for - the Constructors’ Championship. A lot hangs in the balance depending on where a team ranks come the end of the season, and by ‘a lot’, we mean money. The higher up the table, the more FIA prize money - simple as that. Sponsors are of course another vitally important income stream for a team, meaning that poor performances will put a sour taste in investors’ mouths and vice-versa. We’ve listed our top five constructors below:
Miles
Champions - Red Bull
Yup, not really a huge surprise I’m sure you’ll be thinking! With a wealth of experience and grit in upper management, Adrian Newey at the helm in design and Max Verstappen on-track, closely supported by Pérez, Red Bull will have no problem topping the tables during the coming season. Barring any technical/reliability issues, I foresee the team’s 2024 campaign being an absolute breeze.
P2 - Mercedes
As Manav mentions below, Mercedes only just managed to pip Ferrari to the post for P2 in the standings last year, albeit in the final round. I believe even given the lineup of drivers they have going into 2024, the team will struggle to present a full-fat title challenge, hindered by the occasional mechanical problem or an on-track mishap with either their own teammate or other drivers. As ambitious and hungry as they always are, Mercedes won’t quite make it happen this year, despite being runners-up.
P3 - McLaren
After skyrocketing performance in the second half of the season last year, the Woking team has shown that they can develop their car when their backs are against the wall. Up until Round 9 in Austria last year, things were looking bleak for McLaren, being unable to bag points on a consistent basis. With some clever innovations and upgrade packages, though, they were able to get back into the top ten regularly, plenty of podiums and a sprint race win in hand. I think McLaren will continue on this trajectory and appear on the podium more this year.
P4 - Aston Martin
Image: Aston Martin F1 Media
Aston Martin found themselves with a rapid car in the first half of last year’s season and then struggled during the business end, fraught with general poor performance and frustrating qualifying pace. Team owner Lawrence Stroll made it clear upon acquiring ownership of Racing Point at the dawn of the 2021 season that his aim for the team was to be winning a championship within five years. We’re fast approaching Aston Martin’s fifth season (2025) and it would appear they’re making progress, with the AMR23 showing promise, but time is ticking. Despite this, the team will find themselves doing better than Ferrari, if not by the slightest margin.
P5 - Ferrari
There’s always that hope that Ferrari will return to their championship-winning ways - the start of 2022 was the last time we saw a flash of that but it ultimately unravelled. It may be that 2026 could see their next stab at a title as I mentioned earlier, but I could well be utterly wrong! Ferrari has two excellent drivers fighting their corner; it will again come down to how they fare against the rest of the pack. P5 will be the best it can do this year.
Manav
Champions - Red Bull
Adrian Newey’s impact is clear on Formula One, blessing almost every car he has worked on with his magic touch. Coupled with Christian Horner’s determination and Helmut Marko’s ruthlessness, Red Bull will remain a force to be reckoned with in 2024. Verstappen’s pace will most likely account for this seventh championship victory but Perez’s occasional podiums will help keep the position stable.
P2 - McLaren
Andrea Stella’s hard work has paid off and has rubbed off on the entire team at Woking. There will be a lot more success for the team in 2024, maintaining second place for most of the season whilst fighting off occasional challenges from Mercedes in the midseason. I believe the combination of Norris and Piastri will work wonders in a very tight field.
P3 - Mercedes
Mercedes will continue to push for more success but will fall short of the challenge it was hoping to make, having just scraped second from Ferrari in Abu Dhabi last season. The Hamilton/Russell pairing is one of the strongest on the grid, but the car will not match their immense speed. With Toto Wolff signing a three-year contract extension to remain as team principal at Mercedes, it could be back to business as usual for Mercedes very soon.
P4 - Ferrari
Image: Scuderia Ferrari Media
Ferrari will most likely have a close fight with Mercedes as it positions to fight for championships regularly towards the end of this current era of technical regulations. Leclerc and Sainz have been pretty equal on pace but will probably not translate this pace into speed and results.
P5 - Aston Martin
Lawrence Stroll’s stake in Aston Martin significantly decreased at the end of 2023, potentially hinting at a change in ownership in the near future. With this uncertainty also comes the challenge of balancing the rapid Fernando Alonso with the occasionally brilliant Lance Stroll. I predict Aston Martin will have great pace at the beginning of the season but will inevitably fade as we get to halfway through the season.
Three Biggest Surprises
Now, this is the fun bit - as it turns out, not a single one of either of our predictions for 2023 actually came true, so we’re hoping to change that this time around! We’re hoping that we’ll review these ones in a year’s time and not be laughing at ourselves for being so naive, so let’s get into it:
Miles
Lando Norris has another winless season
In spite of what I said of McLaren above, I think Piastri will have a more impressive season even though he may place lower in the standings. Lando has been agonisingly close to his first race win on a number of occasions but there’s just something that’s stopping him. I don’t want this one to come true as it’s always lovely to see a maiden victory in this sport, but I fear I may be right.
Haas score points semi-consistently
I’m aware I’m being somewhat non-committal and vague with this prediction, however given the recent departure of Gunther Steiner as Team Principal and his replacement in Ayao Komatsu, things could turn around for the American-owned team. A fresh face, new attitude and new coat of paint could be exactly what Haas needs to make up for season upon season of disappointment.
Stake F1 Team is a failure
Formerly Alfa Romeo Sauber, Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber (what a mouthful) is taking on a new identity ahead of the 2024 season, having brought on investment from Stake, a betting and entertainment brand, in 2023 and now Kick, a rival live-streaming platform to Twitch.
The rebranding announcement made by the team earlier this month was “Full of itchy PR nonsense” according to one disgruntled fan - which really brings into question the faith that management has in its personnel and drivers to be able to perform well enough to keep sponsors and investors happy and deep-pocketed. I think this advertising billboard of a team will ultimately fail at achieving anything substantial this year, despite their driver lineup of an exciting and yet unproven Zhou Guanyu and experienced, level-headed Valtteri Bottas.
Manav
Perez gets demoted mid-season
I reckon if Perez’s pace is much slower than that of Verstappen, Red Bull could swap the Mexican with Daniel Ricciardo, who made a surprise comeback last season. He could potentially announce his retirement altogether from the sport, meaning Liam Lawson gets a full-time seat at Alpha Tauri (or Racing Bulls) in 2025. It’s definitely going to get very interesting for three of the four Red Bull drivers in 2024.
Alpine win a race
I think Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly have proven that Alpine can have the same trajectory as Aston Martin – it’s just a shame that the team seems to be hemorrhaging valuable team personnel, with great names including Alan Permane, who has just signed a new deal with Alpha Tauri for 2024. I think Ocon or Gasly will get a win at a track like China or Hungary, where unexpected results are the norm.
Albon gets a podium
Image: Williams Media
I sincerely hope Williams returns to the success it was once so used to. I think Alex Albon will go one step further than he did last season and claim a surprise podium at a track like Silverstone or Singapore. With the direction Williams is heading, things are very much on the up.
Wrapping up…
So, that’s your lot! We try to never take ourselves too seriously when writing these predictions up, so take these all with a grain of salt. We hope you found at least some of this insightful and we look forward to another season of our beloved sport that is Formula One.
We’ll be bringing you the very best motorsport content this year here at Race Reaction, so stay tuned!
